Flats
The beginning of 2009 brought changes at the secondary housing market – whereas during the last months of the previous year sellers prevailed among customers of real estate offices, then in January more purchasers grew in number. In the third decade of January offer prices of flats stabilised after insignificant 0.8-1.5% decreases starting from December 2008.

Investors re-appear at the market, however the scope of their purchases is lower than previously: these are not purchases of several premises planned for further re-sale with profit as it used to be in previous years, but rather individual purchases of flats for rent. 40% share, the highest for several years, of such transactions in the total number of all transactions conducted from December 2008 to February 2009 can give evidence to that.

The increasing demand relates first of all to new flats, and also to older, well-kept flats in good locations. Buyers, having currently a very wide offer to select from, do not show their wider interest in overpriced flats, in bad technical conditions, in neglected buildings, large – with more than 4 rooms, on ground floors of buildings (apart from the ones located at enclosed housing estates, with monitoring provided), irregularly lighted, in a room-through-room arrangement, on the fourth floor without a lift, with
a small number of flats, but with over-measured area; there is also a lower demand for flats located in prefabricated panel blocks of flats – in all of these cases you can expect the widest openness of sellers in price negotiations.

On the grounds of our forecasts, starting from the second quarter of the 2009 you should expect the number of buyers to double, all the more even now the continued more-than-triple predominance of supply over demand gives buyers a change to
negotiate prices and obtain reductions going up to 20 percent. Additionally, larger liberalisation of banks to give mortgage credits is expected.

On the grounds of our observations, it can be concluded that currently approximately 60% customers while purchasing a flat first of all have made use of their owned financial sources with an additional credit support. More willingly than last year customers make use of services provided by credit consulting companies.

Flat rent
In 2008 the supply of flats planned for renting has grown evenly, in parallel with the demand. In large cities in Poland, especially in large academic centres, the demand intensified in the period July – October and derived above all from pupils and students. In November and December the demand weakened and was held steady at an average level.

A lot of analysts forecasted at the end of the last year a mass migration of customers from the market of flat buyers to the market of flat renters; however, so far, the forecasts have not come true. In January 2009 the number of new rent contracts in fact increased; however the supply was higher than the demand, what protected tenants against significant increases of rents. So-called institutional that is financed by companies which need flats for their staff, prevailed.

Houses
The market of houses is the most stable segment of real estate market. Within the past years the prices have not undergone such violent changes as in case of flats. In 2006 and 2007 the prices went up by 40% on average for houses in very good locations and approximately 18% - in average locations. At that time high prices of flats and searching alternative solutions, so increasing
demand, though yet mild, had an impact onto the increase of house prices.

As previously, new houses with their area up to 150 sq. metres at 800-1200 sq. metre land plots, built in modern, energy-saving technologies, one storey or with a habitable loft, neatly located in quiet housing estates out of city centres or on their outskirts or up to 1-15 kilometres from their borders but with a good communication to city centres attract the most attention.

The interest of purchasing houses at small building estates by developers has increased since last year. Earlier such building was not of much interest, as – in the opinion of customers - it was to expensive in relation to factual costs of building. Supporters of a new house with a garden decided more often to build it on their own, bearing all the inconvenience, but on the other hand incurring lower costs.

Małgorzata Battek

Property Journal 02-03/09